منابع مشابه
On Estimating Hurricane Return Periods
Interest in hurricane risk usually focuses on landfalling events of the highest intensity, which cause a disproportionate amount of hurricane-related damage. Yet assessing the long-term risk of the most intense landfalling events is problematic because there are comparatively few of them in the historical record. For this reason, return periods of the most intense storms are usually estimated b...
متن کاملEstimating Return Periods of Extreme Events from Ecmwf Seasonal Forecast Ensembles
Meteorological extremes have large impacts on society. The fact that approximately 40% of the Netherlands is below sea level makes this country especially vulnerable to flooding, both from the sea and from rivers. This has resulted in extensive research on the statistics of extremes. However, applications to meteorological and hydrological situations are always hampered by the brevity of the av...
متن کاملEstimating return on leadership development investment
When making capital investment decisions organizational leaders are trained to consider the financial return on investment. Yet, the same expectation typically does not exist for investments in leadership training. We suggest that decisions regarding leadership training and development ought to use a similar approach as the process leads to organizations incurring cost for an anticipated benefi...
متن کاملReliability, return periods, and risk under nonstationarity
Water resources design has widely used the average return period as a concept to inform management and communication of the risk of experiencing an exceedance event within a planning horizon. Even though nonstationarity is often apparent, in practice hydrologic design often mistakenly assumes that the probability of exceedance, p, is constant from year to year which leads to an average return p...
متن کاملReturn periods of European winter precipitation extremes
On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last five centuries A. Pauling and H. Paeth Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn, Germany Received: 22 February 2006 – Accepted: 18 March 2006 – Published: 24 April 2006 Correspondence t...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
سال: 2010
ISSN: 1558-8432,1558-8424
DOI: 10.1175/2009jamc2236.1